Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS62 KMHX 240807
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
307 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory expanded to include Northern Outer Banks,
Mainland Dare, Northern Craven, Jones, and Duplin Counties.

Expanded the Wind Advisory to include the Northern Outer Banks.

Gale Warning expanded to include the Neuse and Bay Rivers

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An Arctic front will push through the area early this morning
with a low pressure system passing through ENC this weekend,
bringing a wintry mix of some snow, but mostly sleet and
freezing rain to ENC, highest impacts far inland ENC.

2) Cold airmass builds in through much of next week with below
normal temperatures with highs in the 30-40 degree range and
lows into the teens and 20s. Winds chill may fall below 15
degrees a few mornings, including Saturday morning and Tuesday
morning. Possibly even colder temperatures Thursday and Friday
with wind chills approaching 0.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An arctic cold front will push through the area early this
morning, with scattered areas of light showers out ahead of it,
mainly along the coast. Temps are around 45 degrees where precip
is falling and it is expected to move out before temps plummet
behind the front, so not anticipating any impacts during the
pre-dawn hours.

Arctic high pressure builds into the area from the north on
today with very cold and dry airmass, while at the same time
mid and upper level fgen inc ahead of next system to the west.
With isentropic ascent increasing through the afternoon, light
mixed precip may break out in the afternoon for all of ENC and
cont the winter wx advisory for all zones except E Carteret and
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. While not guaranteed to
precipitate, anything that falls will be freezing drizzle,
light sleet, or snow and impacts may occur esp on bridges and
overpasses with temps near or below freezing all day with the
widespread cloud cover. Cold apparent temperatures will develop
this morning and continue the cold wx advisory for apparent T`s
of less than 15 degrees through noon and did expand to include
a few additional zones that are now forecast to meet criteria.

By tonight into Sunday, low pressure will develop along stalled
front, coastal trough offshore and begin to more northeastward
and penetrate into Eastern NC through the overnight. Substantial
warming aloft begins in earnest Sat night, with 850mb temps
fcst to reach between 5-10C by daybreak Sunday, while stubborn
CAD remains at the sfc west of Hwy 17. Little change in 00z
model guidance, which brings sfc warming above freezing from E
to W across ENC through the overnight, limiting duration of
icing for areas along and east of Hwy 17 and thus winter weather
advisory ending during the evening to early morning hours. West
of Hwy 17, the CAD holds strong through Sunday morning, leading
to more prolonged QPF at below freezing temps. Icing totals
remain in the .10-.20" range, which is just shy of warning
criteria, though does not diminish the fact that travel impacts
will be high in these zones. CAD still expected to erode further
inland along with dry slot moving into ENC and ending the
advisory early afternoon on track.

Sunday night all of ENC in warm sector with temps on the coast
cont to rise through the 50s to low 60s, and inland areas
remaining cool but above freezing in the upper 30s to near 40.
Out ahead of sfc front, rain shower chances inc again with some
instability on the coast, and QPF/pops raised as a result. Rain
quickly ends by around sunrise Mon with CAA ensuing and temps
falling through the afternoon to below freezing again by Mon
evening.

Regarding winds with arctic front tonight and Sat morning,
sustained winds of 30-40 mph on the OBX have prompted wind
advisory to be issued along with gales for all waters except the
Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Water level rises may rise a bit above
normal for southern areas of Pamlico Sound, but brief surge and
below normal water levels due to drought conditions should limit
any impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Arctic high pressure will build in behind the departing system
through much of next week. Temperatures will be quite a bit
below normal, with highs in the 30-45 degree range, and lows in
the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will be at or below 15
degrees for Monday night and Tuesday morning. A robust upper
trough and reinforcing cold front will move through mid week.
Moisture is somewhat limited but could see snow showers
producing minor accumulations. The air mass behind this front
appears even colder, with wind chills approaching 0 for Friday
and Saturday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight cats forecast through the overnight and most of day
Saturday. Winds becoming NNEerly increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt behind strong cold front. These winds will pose
crosswind concerns for EWN on RWY14/32. There may be some
additional scattered light showers (all liquid) through the
overnight hours, but bulk of this activity is forecast to remain
along the immediate coast and offshore.

Temperatures will plummet through the night behind the Arctic
front crosses the area, dropping temps to sub-freezing by early
this morning. Winds will slightly veer to the NE with gusts to
15-20 kt continuing through the day. Sleet, snow, and freezing
rain are possible at all terminals from SAT evening onward.
Precip will be scattered in nature, but even a small amount
could become hazardous and create a glaze, especially on
elevated surfaces. ISO and PGV are of greatest concern as the
Wern edge of the FA is where confidence is greatest in
impactful ice accretion. However, all terminals have the
potential to be impacted.

VFR persists until sunset tonight when CIGs lower to MVFR,
further lowering to IFR or lower after 6Z SUN.

Outlook: The bulk of the freezing rain is forecast to occur
overnight Saturday into Sunday. ISO and PGV have a 60-70% chance
of at least 0.1" of ice accretion while OAJ and EWN have less
than a 10% chance. Temperatures will warm to above freezing by
Sunday afternoon, changing any remaining precip back to rain.
Widespread IFR or lower CIGs and LLWS concerns are expected
through all of SUN. Flight cats improve MON as Arctic high
pressure builds in lasting through much of next week with
predominantly VFR flight cats expected.

&&

.MARINE...
An Arctic front is pushing south across the waters early this
morning. Latest obs show N winds in the 25-35 kt range with
gusts to around 40 with seas 3-6 ft across the northern half of
the waters, while to the south winds are around 10 kt lower,
however will quickly increase over the next few hours.
Gale Warnings for all zones except Pamlico/Pungo rivers which
are in SCA, with winds slowly diminishing from north to south
through the day this afternoon.

Tonight through Tuesday: Winds become E-SE tonight then swrly
on Sunday as low pressure tracks just inland from the coast.
Strong SCA to low end gales redevelop with swrly strong gradient
in WAA flow on the Gulf waters later Sunday, with SCA or lower
winds on remaining waters. Next cold front moves through Sunday
night into Monday morning with strong nwrly CAA winds
redeveloping later Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas more
benign into mid week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-193-203.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Sunday for NCZ045-080-092-193-198.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for NCZ046-047-081-094-194-195-199-203.
     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ203.
     Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ135-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ136.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ137-150.
     Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...SK/TL